The results of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) vote for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be revealed on Tuesday night. Much of the intrigue in this vote will be whether Scott Rolen and/or Todd Helton make it, the progress of various players and how Alex Rodríguez and Carlos Beltrán fare. The IS.
The rules: A player is eligible to be placed on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who receive at least 75 percent of the ballots returned by qualified BWBAA voters are inducted into the Hall of Fame. Those who get less than five percent of the ballot fall. Those between five and 75 percent can remain on the ballot for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who are active and in good standing and have been so for at least 10 years can vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players each year.
No matter what goes down in the BBWAA vote, there is already one new Hall of Famer in the class of 2023: Fred McGriff. He made it through the.
Here are the details for Tuesday’s selection show:
Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2023 announcement
- Time: 6 pm ET | Date: Tuesday, January 24
- TV channel: MLB Network (coverage begins at 4 p.m. ET and lasts four hours)
- Live stream: fuboTV (try it for free)
Below are six stories to watch as the vote totals are revealed on Tuesday night. NOTE: When I say “poll,” I’m talking about it Ballot tracker Ryan Thibodaux (it’s not really a poll but a collection of ballots, but this is the easiest way to frame it succinctly).
1. Is this the year of Rolen?
Scott Rolen’s take on the vote is “when, not if”. It really is more than it feels. Last month,to show that Rolen is highly unlikely to enter.
It still matters if it’s this year or next year or the year after that, though. First of all, personally, Rolen is certainly excited to get in and if he just misses the cut, it’s another year of waiting. As for the big picture Hall of Fame voting, it’s presence on the ballot and their clearance helps all other legitimate candidates. Remember, voters only have a maximum of 10 points on their ballot and some Small Hall voters artificially limit themselves beyond that. More succinctly, the sooner Rolen gets off the ballot, the easier it is for every other player to make gains — including next year’s newcomers like Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.
Polling shows Rolen has a good chance of reaching the required 75 percent, but he appears to have a reasonably good chance of falling just short. He was polling at 71 percent last year and the actual vote showed him at 63.2 percent. Currently, he sits at 79.2 percent in the poll and if there is a similar deficit in private ballots, he will be just shy of making it.
Like I said, it will be close. This is where most of the drama is for Tuesday night’s vote.
2. Still a low number for A-Rod?
A-Rod. We already know that. I strongly believe this is a huge year in the voting for A-Rod. If he makes big gains, there’s a chance he’ll make the Hall down the road. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably end up in Bondland. .
The numbers don’t add up right now for A-Rod. Polling shows he’s up just two votes from last year (when he was 161 votes shy of cover). It is always possible that there is a cache of non-public votes for A-Rod, but not last year. Right now, it looks like he’ll fall short of 40 percent and if so, it’s hard to see him making up much ground moving forward to get to 75 percent.
3. How does the signal theft scandal affect Beltrán?
We were able to get a general idea of how, in general, the voting body would deal with the players involved in PEDs with the voting body. In Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, we have two all-time greats who never tested positive during the test, but who were very involved. In Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez, we had players who posted offensive Hall of Fame numbers but tested positive. In A-Rod, well, you know.
We don’t have a good comparison between this polling body and Beltran, though, and it could provide a roadmap for how things will pan out for Jose Altuve and other underdogs. This is.
The poll shows him over A-Rod by about 15 percent at 55.7 to 40.4, so that’s probably a good sign for Beltran. There are a few voters who wrote that they have withheld a vote for him this year but would think about it again next year. If he can get around 50 percent of the vote, I’d estimate, he has a chance to get in down the road. If he ends up closer to A-Rod, we’ll say low-40s, he’ll probably be in for 10 long years.
Other than seeing if Rolen comes in or not, this is the main story that will grab my attention on Tuesday night.
4. Helton in motion
But what if Rolen isn’t the only player with a chance to make it?
Last year, Helton received 52 percent of the vote compared to Rolen’s 63.2 percent, but Helton has made significant gains. He is already up to 32 votes and is actually pulling away from Rolen, sitting at 79.8 percent. It would be a great step forward, but the voting body as a whole appears to have strongly supported Helton’s candidacy.
His is a polarizing case, but not for scandalous reasons. He played his entire career with Coors Field as his home..
If there is a big upset on Tuesday night, Helton will be a Hall of Famer.
5. Watch for gains
We keep an eye on the following players apart from those mentioned above:
- Billy Wagner: After rising nearly 30 points in two years to 46.4 for the 2021 vote, Wagner made gains of less than 51 percent last year. However, the poll shows that he has received 29 votes in this voting cycle. This is his eighth year and a great chance, with all the ballots cleared from the last voting cycle, to jump into real territory.
- Gary Sheffield: After a big two-year jump to 40.6 in the 2021 vote, Sheffield stagnated at just 40.6 percent again. This is his ninth year on the ballot and he needs a big jump to have such a long shot next year. A poll shows 26 votes received so far, so maybe he is on his way, but, realistically, the lack of gains last year doomed him.
- Andrew Jones: Little more than an afterthought staying on the ballot in his first two years, Jones hit 19.4 percent in 2020, 33.9 percent in 2021 and 41.1 percent last year. Now in his sixth ballot, the tracker has received another 24 votes. It looks like it will top 50 percent or maybe even 55? If that’s the case, he’s well on his way to eventual coverage.
- Bobby Abreu: He received only 8.6 percent of the vote last year, but has received 12 votes so far in the poll. This is his fourth attempt.
- Andy Pettitte: In his fourth voting cycle last year, Pettite received 10.7 percent of the vote and has received 13 votes this time around.
- Jimmy Rollins: He received 9.4 percent of the vote in his debut last year and has received five votes this time.
- Mark Buehrle: He has stayed above the threshold in each of his first two attempts (5.8 percent last year) and has received nine votes.
Wagner and Jones are the big ones to watch although Buehrle and Rollins would hardly stay alive.
6. Who falls off?
- Jeff Kent: That is his swan song; its 10th and final year. Even when the polling data has come down well in the final year, it’s unlikely that he’ll pass even 60 percent. I detailed that his situation in the committee is likely to go much better and that is a blessing in disguise for him.
- Torii Hunter: Shooting just 5.3 percent last year in his first attempt, Hunter barely survived. His public gains are modest enough to believe that he might fall below 5 percent.
- Francisco Rodríguez: It’s the first year for K-Rod and it looks like it’s going to last, but it’s probably going to be very close. The poll shows him around nine percent, but as a closer, I think he will lose some before the vote is revealed.
- Omar Vizquel: His chances of survival are slim. He has the right to vote with K-Rod, but the other Vizquel voters are almost all private. It gained nearly 14 percent last year between ballot tracking and actual voting results. He’s still dead in the water as far as his chances of making the Hall, though, here in his sixth attempt.
- None of the first watches left on the ballot have yet received a public vote. That’s them Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, UK Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, JJ Hardy, John Leakey, Mike Napoli, Johnny Peralta, Huston Street, Jared Weaver and Jayson Werth. Even if a few people get a vote or two, they’re all one-and-done.
Of those facing the 5 percent threshold, I’m going to predict that Hunter will fall out while K-Rod and Vizquel last.
He’s the only other person on the ballot I haven’t mentioned yet Manny Ramirez. It probably remains in no man’s land with Vizquel, albeit for different reasons. He got 28.9 percent of the vote last year and his poll shows stagnation.
, I predicted this class to be McGriff and Rolen. I nailed the committee vote with McGriff going in on his own, so let’s get it two out of two right, too. Rolen goes in and that’s it from this vote.